Publications The Stability Factor and Erdoğan’s Idée Fixe

April 10, 2021by admin

The analytical article "The Stability Factor and Erdoğan’s Idée Fixe" (in Armenian) by Vahram Ter-Matevosyan, PSAA Council Member, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow of the Institute of Oriental Studies, NAS, RA, published on November 2, 2015 on Mediamax news agency's official website. The analysis is also published on PSAA’s official website.

The Stability Factor and Erdoğan’s Idée Fixe

In the early parliamentary elections held in Turkey on November 1, the Justice and Development Party received 23.3 million votes, which was an unprecedented figure. It was 4.5 million more than the votes received on June 7, giving the AKP the right to re-form a one-party government. In fact, last day, people who actively followed the news were concerned about one question: "how?".Since August 24, when the snap election was announced, in almost no question of public opinion did I foresee such a result. In many interviews and statements, this result was not expected even by the leaders of the main competing parties. Without underestimating the probability of possible and acceptable deviations, allegations of falsification of election results and other important judgments, we will try to understand how such results were recorded, and what consequences await Turkey.Analysis of the results of these elections shows that the main loser was the party " nationalist Movement, After the June 7 election, he lost 2 million votes without winning a single state. As a result, the HDP faction formed in the former parliament was reduced by half, from 80 to 41. The pro-Kurdish Peoples ' Democratic Party, although it expected 15% of the results, lost 1 million votes and barely broke the 10% barrier, which reduced the number of deputies by 20. However, in the 12 provinces in the south-east, the PD was the first to re-emphasize the fact that it is an important political factor. Of course, unequal electoral struggle,abuse of power resources, violations recorded on election day, etc. also had a significant impact on the election results. For security reasons, after the October 10 bombings, the PD abandoned the idea of organizing rallies and large-scale marches and was forced to limit itself to hall meetings. Only the opposition NPA was able to increase the vote by half a million, but this did not significantly affect the strengthening of the party's position.Essentially, The society trusted the AKP's assurances about restoring stability. According to the AKP, within a few months, the country was driven to Civil War by internal and external enemies, in particular, the Gulenists, the Kurdish Workers 'Party, the Islamic State and other "evil enemies". At least three million citizens have become disillusioned with the PFPA and the PSP in five months, and the reason for their change was a violation of Turkey's stability and security, not a concern for democracy and public solidarity. Citizens, Those who forgave Erdogan for his corruption and scandalous stories, authoritarianism, and suppression of the opposition and the press put the country's stability above all else and gave Erdogan and Davutoglu another four-year mandate. There was also a high turnout in this election, and compared to June, 1.3 million more voters voted.Given the years of AKP rule, it is difficult to say that the AKP will be able to easily implement the idea of a new constitution. Is known, what Erdogan's idea fix is to turn Turkey's system of government into a presidential one-either with a full amendment to the Constitution, or in part. In the new parliament, 316 seats are enough to form a one-party government, but with ease to make constitutional changes is far from satisfactory. In 2011 In the elections, he also recorded almost the same result, but he again failed to adopt a new Constitution. In addition to their own political priorities, there are other pressing issues on the agenda: restoring political and economic stability, the Kurdish issue, the fight against terrorism, the Syrian crisis, the refugee problem, the settlement of relations with the United States, the Russian Federation and the EU, etc. These problems require urgent solutions.In June, the three Armenians who were elected to the parliament (Garo Paylan, Selina Doga and Markar Yesayan), in all probability, they will be represented again in the new Parliament. Garo had already distinguished himself in a short time. It is hoped that this parliament will be more stable, and it will be able to distinguish itself by effective legislative activity.The year of the next elections in Turkey is 2019, before that, Erdogan will do everything possible to take advantage of this opportunity. He will take this victory as a mandate of public confidence in his political ambitions. In fact, the Turkish society has repeatedly confirmed over the past 2-3 years, who is against the idea of moving to a presidential system? Thus, these elections may promise the stability of the AKP, but it is difficult to imagine that the Turkish political system will improve. It will remain polarized and unstable.Turkey needs fundamental democratic reforms, which can only be achieved through compromise and a new democratic Constitution.

Vahram Ter-Matevosyan
Պատմական գիտությունների թեկնածու,
Քաղաքական գիտության Հայաստանի ասոցիացիայի խորհրդի անդամ,
ՀՀ ԳԱԱ Արևելագիտության ինստիտուտի ավագ գիտաշխատող